Miami Retail Real Estate Market Analysis (Dec 2024 – May 2025)

Written By Drew Lasky

Market Fundamentals

Miami-Dade’s retail real estate market remains one of the strongest in the nation, driven by tight supply and sustained tenant demand. Here’s what’s driving the numbers:

  • Vacancy:

    • Overall retail vacancy sits at just 2.7%—the lowest among major U.S. metros and well below the national average of ~5.4%.

    • Strip centers, a core asset class, are nearly full at 2.4% vacancy (a slight increase of 40 basis points year-over-year).

  • New Construction:

    • Less than 1.0 million SF of new retail space is under construction across the county, and about 75% of that is already pre-leased.

    • This means landlords face very little new competition.

  • Asking Rents:

    • Average rent: $48.94/SF (up 2.4% year-over-year)

    • Lincoln Road (Miami Beach): $150–$200/SF

    • Design District: $250–$500/SF

    • Brickell & Coconut Grove: $100–$200/SF

    • Suburban strips/malls: $30s–$50s/SF

Robust tourism and strong population growth (up about 1.2% last year) are further fueling consumer spending. The result is rising demand for retail space in both luxury corridors and local shopping centers, making Miami-Dade a highly attractive market for investors and owners alike.

Sources: assets.cushmanwakefield.com, commercialsearch.com, institutionalpropertyadvisors.com.

Investment Sales Activity

Despite higher interest rates, investor demand for Miami retail assets remains strong. The region saw a healthy increase in sales activity and several headline-making transactions.

  • Sales Volume:

    • $1.3 billion in retail property sales in 2024 - a 5.5% increase over the prior year

  • Notable Transactions:

    • Shoppes at Midtown Miami (Midtown): $83.8M ($241/SF)

    • Miracle Marketplace (Coral Way): $62.0M (~$252/SF)

    • Mall at 163rd Street (North Miami Beach): $46.0M ($148/SF)

      • Set for redevelopment as a mixed-use “lifestyle” center

    • 910 Lincoln Road (Miami Beach): ~$10.5M (over $1,200/SF)

      • Example of top-dollar pricing for high-street retail

  • Cap Rates:

    • Range from low-3% (trophy assets) to ~8% (older/value-add centers)

    • Average cap rate: ~5.8% (about 30 bps higher than last year)

    • Rise reflects higher financing costs, but yields remain attractive due to strong rent growth and near-full occupancy

  • Investor Focus:

    • Targeting high-quality, well-located centers

    • Over half of sales volume from deals over $10M

    • Interest in redevelopment opportunities (vacant big boxes, older malls)

Bottom Line:
Population growth, wealth migration, record tourism, and tight retail supply continue to make Miami a magnet for retail investment, even in a changing interest rate environment.


Sources: assets.cushmanwakefield.com

Notable Retail Investment Sales (Dec 2024 – May 2025):

Property (Location) Size ( SF) Sale Price Price/SF

Shoppes at Midtown Miami (Midtown) 347,740 $83.8M  $241

Miracle Marketplace (Coral Way) 246,000 $62.0 M $252

Mall at 163rd Street (NE Dade) 311,171 $46.0 M $148

910 Lincoln Road (Miami Beach) 8,772 $10.5 M $1,200

Leasing & Tenant Trends

While new lease volume dipped due to the lack of available space, demand in Miami-Dade’s retail market remains robust. Well-located vacancies are quickly filled by a diverse range of expanding tenants.

  • Leasing Volume:

    • About 2.3 million SF of new retail leases signed in 2024

    • Down ~26% year-over-year, mostly due to a shortage of available space

  • Tenant Demand:

    • Demand remains broad-based—national brands, grocers, value, and experiential operators all expanding

    • Any well-positioned vacancy is quickly leased

  • Recent Major Lease Deals:

    • Ashley Homestore: 32,900 SF in Northeast Dade

    • Presidente Supermarket: 31,900 SF in Hialeah

    • Eataly: 30,000 SF at Aventura Mall (first Florida location)

    • Pinstripes: 29,200 SF at The Plaza, Coral Gables (entertainment + dining)

    • Burlington: 21,600 SF in a Miami Lakes strip center

  • Asking Rents:

    • Prime Brickell & Miami Beach street-front: $100+/SF NNN (Collins Ave deals at $200+/SF)

    • Suburban strip center shops: $30–$50/SF NNN

    • Anchor tenants (grocers, big boxes): lower rents, but rates rising even for secondary locations

  • Lease Structure & Growth:

    • Landlords securing long-term leases with credit tenants, ensuring steady income

    • Overall retail rent growth: +2–3% over the past year

    • High-demand areas like Miami Beach, Brickell, and affluent suburbs are setting new rent records

Bottom Line:
Leasing activity remains solid in Miami, with fierce competition for quality space and rising rents across nearly every submarket.
Sources: assets.cushmanwakefield.com, traded.co

Submarket Highlights

Brickell (Urban Core)

  • Vacancy: ~3.4%

  • Average Asking Rent: ~$78/SF (top spaces above $150/SF)

  • Trends:

    • Ground-floor shops in new mixed-use towers are pre-leasing rapidly

    • High foot traffic from office workers & affluent residents

    • Strong demand from luxury and dining tenants

Miami Beach

  • Vacancy: ~5.4% (slightly elevated due to large spaces in transition)

  • Prime Rents: $150–$300/SF (Lincoln Road & Collins Avenue)

  • Trends:

    • Global brands consistently attracted to core corridors

    • Major sales like 910 Lincoln Rd show strong investor confidence

North Miami-Dade (Aventura, North Miami, Miami Lakes)

  • Vacancy: Only 1.8% (among the lowest in Miami-Dade)

  • Highlights:

    • Aventura Mall is 95%+ leased

    • New attractions like Eataly food hall and premium fitness centers keep traffic high

    • Near-full occupancy in most retail centers

Family-Oriented Suburbs (Kendall, Hialeah, etc.)

  • Vacancy: Below 2%

  • Market Condition:

    • Extremely limited space for new tenants

    • Rents climbing as landlords gain leverage

Key Takeaway:
From luxury corridors to neighborhood strips, nearly every Miami-Dade submarket is characterized by tight vacancy, rising rents, and intense tenant demand—making it one of the hottest retail regions in the U.S.
Sources: assets.cushmanwakefield.com, institutionalpropertyadvisors.com

Outlook

Miami’s retail market is poised for continued strength as we move into the second half of 2025. Investor sentiment remains positive, with expectations that retail property sales will accelerate later this year as interest rates settle and lenders regain confidence in the sector. On the leasing front, brokers expect activity to tick up, particularly as a handful of new projects introduce additional space to an already tight market. However, any uptick will likely be gradual, as available space remains limited.

The region’s robust fundamentals remain unchanged: South Florida continues to attract new residents and businesses, tourism is breaking records, and consumer spending is strong. Retailers across the spectrum—from high-end brands to grocery chains—are fiercely competing for the few remaining prime vacancies. For owners and investors, the combination of steady rent growth and exceptionally low vacancies points to solid income growth potential, especially in well-located strip centers that serve everyday needs.

While some national markets have seen big-box closures and higher vacancies, Miami’s fundamentals are bucking the trend. The market’s low vacancy rates and stable demand mean open-air shopping centers and other retail properties should continue to deliver reliable returns. With no major shocks on the horizon, Miami stands out as a preferred destination for both private and institutional retail investors.
Sources: assets.cushmanwakefield.com, institutionalpropertyadvisors.com, atlanticcg.com, miamirealtors.com

Drew Lasky
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